
GROWTH PLAN
Long term vision and how we'll get there
TALLOW is tackling America's biggest root cause issue – our toxic food system – by serving 100% real, nutrient-dense food sourced from local regenerative farms across the country.
In order to do that, we will maximize distribution of 100% real food as a nationwide restaurant chain & market with packaged products distributed to national grocery stores. We will integrate vertically by acquiring regional regenerative farms to grow our own food and raise our own livestock, driving down the cost of food to simply time, labor, and transport. We will make our top quality menu items affordable by butchering and baking in-house, packaging and distributing grocery products in-house, and acquiring payments in-house within our 10 year plan.
How will we get there? To start, TALLOW will be a local restaurant and market in the Hudson Valley of New York. Here we'll learn how to build the machine for high-throughput, nutrient-rich fast food. We're currently restoring an old McDonald's in Millerton for our first location, and building a small network of regenerative farmers for sourcing. We will also build a strong, loyal customer base with free + paid memberships for in-store discounts, community events, and Sunday Dinners.
Sunday Dinners will be a bi-weekly, members-only, highly elevated six course seasonal menu designed by our Founding Chef. Sunday Dinners will accelerate membership growth and will set us apart from any other fast casual eatery. Each location will include a wood burning fireplace and community tables to reconnect local community members – key to our mission of regenerating American health.
We will avoid the pitfalls of failed restaurants that grow too quickly, do too much, and pay too little. We will scale physical locations thoughtfully, focus on a small menu of highest-quality food, and build lean full-time salaried teams.
We will raise a seed round toward the end of Year 2 to restore two more buildings in the Hudson Valley for our 2nd and 3rd locations. Toward the end of Year 3 we will use profits + investor funds to open our first NYC location plus two more in New England, all within range of our Northeast regenerative farmer network. During this time we'll begin bringing butchering & baking in-house, and we'll distribute grocery store products regionally. By Year 5 we will open two locations in the D.C. Metro area, with a new regional farmer network, for a total of eight locations.
At Year 6, we will evaluate the franchise mode versus the owned & operated model to scale across the country. The current thinking is to raise a significant equity round, allowing us to scale under the O&O model with maximal control of product quality, service, profit retention, and flexibility to adapt. However, we will ultimately do what best serves the mission of regenerating American health with real food.

REVENUE GOALS
Reach profit in year two, and accelerate growth
Our Year 1 goals are to exceed $800K in revenue by serving at least 20,000 pounds of local, regenerative-sourced meat, dairy and produce. We're estimating 50% food costs in the first year conservatively; we will optimize our supply chain and farmer network to drive food costs down to 35% in Year 2.
We estimate $15,500 in average weekly sales, in-line with Hudson Valley QSRs according to Toast benchmark data. We expect an average of 400 weekly customers, which is 1.8% of full time residents in a 10 mile radius to Millerton, according to 2020 census data. These revenue estimates do not include Sunday Dinner services, which will be much higher than an average Sunday service.
We will use our experience from Year 1 to optimize supply chain and automate tasks to drive costs down further. We will increase throughput with delivery service, catering for private schools & social clubs, and expanded Sunday Dinner service to exceed $1.3M in Year 2 sales. By scaling up revenue while lowering food costs to 35%, our goal is to reach $248K in net profit by Year 2.
For a detailed financial packet, please reach out to austin@tallow.email .